How to Watch Reds vs Cardinals – Friday, June 20, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on June 20, 2025, both teams are enjoying above-average seasons, with the Cardinals sitting at 40-35 and the Reds at 39-36. This National League Central matchup marks the first game of the series, and it carries significant weight as both teams look to solidify their positions in the standings.

In their last outing, the Cardinals were impressive, showcasing their offensive prowess, which ranks 12th in MLB, highlighted by a 4th-best batting average. This offensive depth will be crucial as they face Reds pitcher Brady Singer, who has struggled with a 4.34 ERA this season. While Singer has a decent Win/Loss record of 7-4, his projections suggest he may be due for a downturn, particularly given his elevated expected ERA of 4.91.

On the mound for the Cardinals is Andre Pallante, who has had a mixed season. With a 4-3 record and an ERA of 4.83, Pallante’s advanced metrics indicate he may have been unlucky, as his xFIP of 3.61 suggests room for improvement. Facing a Reds offense that ranks 10th in MLB but is known for its high strikeout rate, Pallante’s ability to limit walks and capitalize on strikeouts could give him an edge.

Betting markets currently favor the Cardinals with a moneyline set at -135, reflecting a 55% implied win probability. This suggests a close contest, especially with the Reds’ lineup capable of producing runs, as evidenced by their 10th-best ranking in team home runs. The game total is set at a high 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for an offensive showdown.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Brady Singer has relied on his slider 8.6% less often this season (36.9%) than he did last season (45.5%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Elly De La Cruz tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Andre Pallante.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Matt McLain hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  Andre Pallante turned in a great performance in his previous start and allowed 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Nolan Arenado has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (67% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 20.2% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-135)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 47 games (+8.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 67 games (+6.00 Units / 8% ROI)
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Alec Burleson has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.50 Units / 37% ROI)