Pittsburgh Pirates
@
Texas Rangers
-110O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-110
(-110/-110)-110
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)Braxton Ashcraft has been lucky since the start of last season, notching a 2.63 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 3.73 — a 1.1 gap.Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Oneil Cruz hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 89th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 6th-deepest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Jack Leiter – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Out of all SPs, Jack Leiter’s fastball velocity of 96 mph ranks in the 88th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+240/-335)This season, Joc Pederson’s Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 9.8% last year to just 0% this year.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Texas Rangers – Moneyline (-110)The 5th-best projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the the Texas Rangers.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+7.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line -1.5 (+155)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 40 games (+7.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-145)Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.25 Units / 50% ROI)