Get the Rays vs Red Sox Injury Report – Sunday, July 13, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox will host the Tampa Bay Rays in a crucial American League East matchup on July 13, 2025. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Red Sox holding a 52-45 record and the Rays at 50-46. Last time out, the Red Sox took a significant step forward, winning a tightly contested game, which adds pressure and excitement to the series as they aim to solidify their standing.

Starting for the Red Sox will be Brayan Bello, who has posted a solid 5-3 record this season with an impressive ERA of 3.27. However, advanced metrics suggest he might have been a bit lucky, as his xFIP stands at 4.25, indicating potential for regression. Bello projects to pitch around 5.9 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs, though his projected 6.0 hits allowed could spell trouble against the Rays’ lineup.

The Rays will counter with Ryan Pepiot, who enters the game with a 6-6 record and a 3.32 ERA. Pepiot’s xFIP of 3.89 indicates that he, too, has benefited from favorable conditions. He projects to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs with a similar concern regarding hits allowed at 5.1.

Offensively, the Red Sox boast the 5th best lineup in MLB, highlighted by their 7th best batting average and 9th best home run tally. In contrast, the Rays rank 12th overall, although they do excel with a 3rd best batting average and lead the league in stolen bases.

Betting markets have set the Red Sox as -130 favorites, suggesting a close encounter, yet their strong offensive capabilities could give them the edge over the Rays, especially at Fenway Park. The total for the game is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Out of all starters, Ryan Pepiot’s fastball spin rate of 2411 rpm is in the 78th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Matt Thaiss – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Considering Brayan Bello’s large platoon split, Matt Thaiss will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Collectively, Tampa Bay Rays batters have struggled in regard to hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to best-produce home runs (between 23° and 34°), rating 3rd-worst in MLB.
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Because flyball pitchers have a big advantage over flyball hitters, Brayan Bello and his 50.5% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot in this game going up against 4 opposing FB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+320/-470)
  Ranking in the 85th percentile for base-stealing, Trevor Story has paced 24.1 swipes per 600 plate appearances this year.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen ranks as the 6th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-130)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 35 games (+11.65 Units / 24% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line +1.5 (-185)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 41 away games (+12.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• Roman Anthony – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Roman Anthony has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.40 Units / 31% ROI)