Get the Pirates vs Marlins Injury Report – Thursday, August 13, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Miami Marlins

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Esmerlyn Valdez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Esmerlyn Valdez has big-time power (97th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (30.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tyler Phillips struggles to strike batters out (10th percentile K%) — great news for Valdez.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Pittsburgh Pirates in today’s game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .310, which is considerably lower than their actual wOBA of .325 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Tyler Phillips – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Tyler Phillips has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 21.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-135)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+8.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games (+6.95 Units / 13% ROI)
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Otto Lopez has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.20 Units / 19% ROI)