Get the Pirates vs Brewers Injury Report – Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Milwaukee Brewers

On June 24, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at American Family Field for the second game of their series. The Brewers enter this matchup with a solid record of 43-36, demonstrating an above-average season, while the Pirates find themselves struggling at 32-48, marking one of the worst performances in MLB this year. In their previous game, the Pirates fell to the Brewers, and they’ll be looking to bounce back against a strong opponent.

Freddy Peralta, projected to start for the Brewers, has had an impressive season, boasting a 7-4 record and an excellent ERA of 2.76. He ranks as the 38th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, indicating his effectiveness on the mound. Though he has been somewhat lucky this season, as suggested by his 4.13 xFIP, he still projects to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs while fanning 6.9 batters.

On the other side, Andrew Heaney will take the mound for the Pirates. He’s had a tough time this season, with a 3-6 record and a 3.94 ERA, which is misleading as his 4.52 SIERA indicates he may struggle moving forward. His performance is further hampered by projecting only 5.0 innings pitched with 2.8 earned runs allowed, combined with a below-average strikeout rate of 4.1.

Milwaukee’s offense ranks 18th in MLB, but it has shown moments of brilliance, particularly in their recent efforts. The Pirates’ offense, however, is among the worst at 29th overall, which could give Peralta the edge he needs. Given the Brewers’ status as significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -205, this matchup presents a compelling opportunity for bettors, especially considering the Pirates’ low implied team total of 3.13 runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Andrew Heaney’s fastball velocity has dropped 2.1 mph this year (89.4 mph) below where it was last season (91.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Tommy Pham tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Freddy Peralta.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Freddy Peralta (37.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today’s game with 3 FB hitters in Pittsburgh’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Daz Cameron – Over/Under Hits
  Daz Cameron is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Daz Cameron – Over/Under Total Bases
  Daz Cameron hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.7% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 68 games (+10.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 80 games (+17.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Joseph Ortiz has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.15 Units / 42% ROI)