Get the Pirates vs Brewers Injury Report – Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Milwaukee Brewers

On June 24, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at American Family Field for the second game of their series. The Brewers enter this matchup with a solid record of 43-36, demonstrating an above-average season, while the Pirates find themselves struggling at 32-48, marking one of the worst performances in MLB this year. In their previous game, the Pirates fell to the Brewers, and they’ll be looking to bounce back against a strong opponent.

Freddy Peralta, projected to start for the Brewers, has had an impressive season, boasting a 7-4 record and an excellent ERA of 2.76. He ranks as the 38th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, indicating his effectiveness on the mound. Though he has been somewhat lucky this season, as suggested by his 4.13 xFIP, he still projects to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs while fanning 6.9 batters.

On the other side, Andrew Heaney will take the mound for the Pirates. He’s had a tough time this season, with a 3-6 record and a 3.94 ERA, which is misleading as his 4.52 SIERA indicates he may struggle moving forward. His performance is further hampered by projecting only 5.0 innings pitched with 2.8 earned runs allowed, combined with a below-average strikeout rate of 4.1.

Milwaukee’s offense ranks 18th in MLB, but it has shown moments of brilliance, particularly in their recent efforts. The Pirates’ offense, however, is among the worst at 29th overall, which could give Peralta the edge he needs. Given the Brewers’ status as significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -205, this matchup presents a compelling opportunity for bettors, especially considering the Pirates’ low implied team total of 3.13 runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Andrew Heaney’s fastball velocity has dropped 2.1 mph this year (89.4 mph) below where it was last season (91.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Isiah Kiner-Falefa are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Freddy Peralta.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Freddy Peralta (37.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in Pittsburgh’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Isaac Collins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Isaac Collins has made big gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 7% seasonal rate to 18.8% in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 68 games (+10.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-150/+115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 80 games (+17.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-180/+140)
  Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 29% ROI)