
Baltimore Orioles
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Tampa Bay Rays
+140O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-165
(-110/-110)-165
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Chris Bassitt has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 7.2% more often this year (56.4%) than he did last year (49.2%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Coby Mayo has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (78% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Baltimore Orioles – 2H MoneylineThe Baltimore Orioles bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-165)Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Liam Hicks – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Liam Hicks’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 84.9-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 74.1-mph over the last 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-165)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 22 games (+12.90 Units / 41% ROI)
- Baltimore Orioles – Run Line +1.5 (-155)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 away games (+4.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-145)Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.95 Units / 34% ROI)
