Find Out How to Watch Nationals vs Mets – Friday, August 14th, 2026

Washington Nationals

@

New York Mets

Washington Nationals Insights

• Andrew Alvarez – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Andrew Alvarez has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an -11.1 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Andres Chaparro – Over/Under Hits
  Andres Chaparro has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (93% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Dylan Crews – Over/Under Total Bases
  Dylan Crews hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under Total Bases
  There has been a decrease in Jorge Polanco’s average exit velocity this season, from 90.7 mph last year to 85.6 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be smart to expect positive regression for the New York Mets offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+10.85 Units / 29% ROI)