Find Out How to Watch Nationals vs Mets - Friday, August 14th, 2026

+100O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-120

Andrew Alvarez – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
Compared to the average pitcher, Andrew Alvarez has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an -11.1 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
Keibert Ruiz is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Brady House – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
Brady House hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Robert Stock – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
The Washington Nationals have 7 batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Robert Stock today, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Jared Young – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
Jared Young has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.3-mph to 92.3-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
It may be smart to expect positive regression for the New York Mets offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+10.85 Units / 29% ROI)
Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 35 away games (+5.85 Units / 15% ROI)
Carson Benge – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
Carson Benge has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.15 Units / 22% ROI)

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