Get Recommended Player Prop Bets for Padres vs D-Backs - Saturday, April 25, 2026

+100O/U: 15.5
(-110/-110)-120

German Marquez – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, German Marquez (33.7% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 FB hitters in Arizona’s projected batting order.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Miguel Andujar – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+145/-190)
Miguel Andujar has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .317 rate is considerably higher than his .257 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the San Diego Padres with a 20.3% underlying K%.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Zac Gallen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
Zac Gallen’s slider percentage has spiked by 16.9% from last season to this one (7.2% to 24.1%) .
Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
Jose Fernandez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-210)
Jose Fernandez is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Arizona Diamondbacks bats collectively rank in the cellar of the league this year ( 5th-worst) when assessing their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 7.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.95 Units / 29% ROI)
San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+100)
The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+10.05 Units / 35% ROI)
Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+120/-155)
Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+8.20 Units / 41% ROI)

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