Minnesota Twins
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Tampa Bay Rays
+115O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-135
(-110/-110)-135
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Bailey Ober – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Bailey Ober has utilized his change-up 5.4% more often this year (34.3%) than he did last season (28.9%).Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Shane McClanahan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Among all starting pitchers, Shane McClanahan’s fastball spin rate of 2180 rpm ranks in the 14th percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Jonny Deluca – Over/Under HitsJonny DeLuca is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Tampa Bay Rays with a 19.3% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games (+9.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)