Game Time for Red Sox vs Braves – 6/01/2025

Boston Red Sox

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Atlanta Braves

On June 1, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Boston Red Sox at Truist Park for the third game of their interleague series. The Braves are looking to build on a solid performance from their last outing, where they secured a 5-0 victory against the Red Sox, who are struggling after suffering the same scoreline in their previous match. Both teams are currently below .500, with the Braves sitting at 27-30 and the Red Sox at 28-32, indicating that neither team is having a particularly strong season.

Bryce Elder is projected to take the mound for the Braves. Although he ranks as the 170th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, his recent performance suggests he might be poised for improvement. Elder’s 4.50 ERA is supported by a 3.81 xFIP, indicating he has faced some bad luck this season. He is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a Red Sox offense that ranks 3rd in the league in strikeouts, which could work to his advantage.

On the other side, Garrett Crochet will start for the Red Sox. He has been impressive this season with a 2.04 ERA and ranks as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his projections suggest he could be due for a regression, as indicated by his 2.93 xFIP, which is higher than his ERA. Crochet’s ability to limit earned runs will be crucial, especially against a Braves offense that, while average in many aspects, has the potential to break out.

The Braves’ offense ranks 16th overall, while the Red Sox boast the 8th best offense in MLB, which could give them an edge in this matchup. With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, betting markets indicate a close contest, with the Braves currently at +100 and the Red Sox at -120. The projections suggest the Braves could outperform their implied team total of 3.90 runs, making them an intriguing option for bettors looking for value in this matchup.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Garrett Crochet has gone to his four-seamer 11.3% less often this season (42.4%) than he did last season (53.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Trevor Story is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen ranks as the 6th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Bryce Elder’s 90.7-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 12th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Matt Olson’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 94.7-mph now compared to just 91.3-mph then.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Ozzie Albies pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.3% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 2nd-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+9.80 Units / 22% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 20 away games (+10.60 Units / 45% ROI)
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+5.95 Units / 39% ROI)