Game Recap for Red Sox vs Pirates - Friday, August 14th, 2026

-120O/U: 8
(-105/-115)+100

Jake Bennett – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have 8 bats in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage over Jake Bennett in this matchup.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Jarren Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
Jarren Duran has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
Among all starting pitchers, Bubba Chandler’s fastball velocity of 97.8 mph grades out in the 99th percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Ronny Simon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
Ronny Simon is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
The underlying talent of the Pittsburgh Pirates projected offense today (.307 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount weaker than their .326 wOBA this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games at home (+12.10 Units / 28% ROI)
Boston Red Sox – Run Line -1.5 (+140)
The Boston Red Sox have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 50 away games (+11.35 Units / 17% ROI)
Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+155/-205)
Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+7.05 Units / 70% ROI)

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