
Milwaukee Brewers
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Philadelphia Phillies
-125O/U: 7
(-110/-110)+105
(-110/-110)+105
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Logan Henderson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)The Philadelphia Phillies have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over Logan Henderson in this matchup.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Christian Yelich is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Milwaukee Brewers – 2H MoneylineThe Milwaukee Brewers bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)In his previous GS, Aaron Nola performed well and posted 7 strikeouts.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Kyle Schwarber’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 94.3-mph figure last season has fallen off to 92.3-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Brandon Marsh has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-125)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games (+6.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)Jake Bauers has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 62% ROI)
