Game Forecast: White Sox vs Orioles Match Preview - 7/1/26

+120O/U: 10
(-115/-105)-140

Noah Schultz – Over/Under 13.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
Compared to average, Noah Schultz has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an -10.0 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
Braden Montgomery – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
Braden Montgomery has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph to 98-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Chicago White Sox batters jointly rank 4th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 9.4% Barrel%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Dean Kremer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
Dean Kremer’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (65.7% compared to 53.7% last season) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
Despite posting a .255 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Tyler O’Neill has been unlucky given the .078 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .333.
Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
Coby Mayo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
Coby Mayo pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.6% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+7.60 Units / 29% ROI)
Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 away games (+6.85 Units / 39% ROI)
Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-105/-125)
Tyler O’Neill has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.45 Units / 26% ROI)

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