Follow the Live Updates for Mariners vs Astros – 5/25/2025

Seattle Mariners

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Houston Astros

On May 25, 2025, the Houston Astros will host the Seattle Mariners at Minute Maid Park for the fourth game of their series. Both teams are in the thick of the American League West race, with the Astros sitting at 27-25, while the Mariners boast a better record of 29-22. The Astros are having an above-average season, while the Mariners are performing well. In their last game, the Astros edged out the Mariners with a tight 2-1 victory, adding to the competitive atmosphere of this matchup.

Colton Gordon is projected to take the mound for the Astros. Despite his low ranking as the 181st best starting pitcher in MLB, Gordon has shown some signs of promise, with a 3.72 xFIP suggesting he might be due for better luck. However, his 5.59 ERA is concerning, and he projects to pitch only 4.6 innings while allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs. Facing him will be Luis Castillo, who has been solid this season, sporting a 3.20 ERA and a ranking of 84th among starting pitchers. Castillo is projected to pitch 6.2 innings with an average of 2.6 earned runs allowed, making him a key asset for the Mariners.

The Astros’ offense ranks 14th in MLB, but they have struggled with power, ranking 20th in home runs. In contrast, the Mariners are 6th in home runs, which could be a significant advantage given Gordon’s flyball tendencies. The projections suggest a close contest, with the Astros holding an average implied team total of 4.00 runs, while the Mariners have a higher implied total of 4.50 runs. As the game total is set at a balanced 8.5 runs, bettors should keep an eye on how these pitchers perform under pressure.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Luis Castillo’s 94.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.4-mph decline from last year’s 95.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Typically, bats like Mitch Garver who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Colton Gordon.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Seattle Mariners hitters as a unit grade out 4th- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 10.7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Houston Astros Insights

• Colton Gordon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Given that flyball batters struggle against flyball pitchers, Colton Gordon (37.3% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 3 FB hitters in the opposing team’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Yainer Diaz is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46.3% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 52 games (+8.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games (+9.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• Leonardo Rivas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-180/+140)
  Leonardo Rivas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 40% ROI)