
Detroit Tigers
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Kansas City Royals
+110O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-130
(-110/-110)-130
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Brenan Hanifee will “start” for Detroit Tigers in today’s game but will be treated as more of an opener and may not last more than a couple frames.Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
- Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Over the past week, Spencer Torkelson’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 16% up to 28.6%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Spencer Torkelson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Noah Cameron – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Noah Cameron has used his non-fastballs 5.3% less often this year (68.3%) than he did last season (73.6%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Jac Caglianone has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.3-mph average to last year’s 89.4-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Kansas City’s 16.3° launch angle (an advanced stat to evaluate the ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most flyball-inducing in baseball this year: #2 overall.Explain: A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.
Betting Trends
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 away games (+6.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-185)Spencer Torkelson has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+8.20 Units / 18% ROI)
