Find the Official Lineup for Blue Jays vs Reds – 9/03/2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays on September 3, 2025, the stakes are high in this Interleague matchup. The Reds currently sit at 70-69, having endured an average season, while the Blue Jays boast an impressive 80-59 record, positioning them as one of the top teams in MLB. In their last game, the Reds fell to the Blue Jays, who are riding high with their potent offense.

On the mound, the Reds are set to start Zack Littell, who has been somewhat inconsistent this season, with a Win/Loss record of 9-8 and an ERA of 3.63. However, advanced statistics suggest he may have been lucky, as his 4.32 xFIP indicates potential struggles ahead. Littell’s low strikeout rate of 16.8% could be a concern against a Blue Jays lineup that has the 2nd least strikeouts in MLB, potentially giving Toronto the edge in this matchup.

Shane Bieber, projected to start for the Blue Jays, has had a stellar season with a 2.38 ERA and a Power Rankings position as the 29th best starting pitcher. Bieber’s 1.69 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, indicating he could be poised for a strong outing against a Reds offense that ranks 17th overall.

The Reds’ offense has struggled with power, ranking 24th in home runs, while the Blue Jays shine as the 2nd best overall offense, highlighted by their 1st place ranking in team batting average. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the Blue Jays are favored with a moneyline of -155, while the Reds sit as underdogs at +135. The projections suggest that the Reds have an average implied team total of 3.84 runs, while the Blue Jays are projected for a higher total of 4.66 runs. With both teams vying for a crucial win, this matchup promises to be an exciting clash at Great American Ball Park.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Shane Bieber – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  With 6 bats who share his hand in the opposing team’s projected offense, Shane Bieber should benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  In terms of his home runs, Daulton Varsho has been very fortunate this year. His 51.6 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 38.3.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Bo Bichette has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Among all starting pitchers, Zack Littell’s fastball spin rate of 2009 rpm is in the 8th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Matt McLain is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Cincinnati Reds have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 16.3° mark is among the highest in Major League Baseball this year (#2 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 66 of their last 111 games (+22.15 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 71 of their last 121 games (+22.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+490/-850)
  Bo Bichette has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+7.80 Units / 195% ROI)