Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Orioles vs Rays - 5/20/26

-105O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-115

Shane Baz – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
Shane Baz has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 7.9 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Samuel Basallo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
Samuel Basallo has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (91% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Blaze Alexander – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
Blaze Alexander has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Steven Matz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
With 7 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Steven Matz faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Taylor Walls – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
Taylor Walls’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 86.4-mph mark last season has fallen to 81.9-mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Tampa Bay Rays in this game owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .303, which is a fair amount worse than their actual wOBA of .320 this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.0 (+125)
The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+14.30 Units / 37% ROI)
Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 away games (+7.60 Units / 36% ROI)
Taylor Ward – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
Taylor Ward has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 25 games (+7.10 Units / 27% ROI)

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