Find Out How to Watch Twins vs White Sox – 08/07/2024

Minnesota Twins

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Chicago White Sox

As the Minnesota Twins travel to Chicago to face the White Sox on July 8, 2024, we see a classic American League Central showdown. This game marks the first in the series and features Chris Paddack for the Twins against the White Sox’s Chris Flexen. Both teams’ seasons have been heading in opposite directions, with the Twins sitting at 51-39 and enjoying a good season, while the White Sox are struggling at 26-66.

Chris Flexen, the White Sox’s projected starter, has had a tough year. With a 2-7 record and a 5.08 ERA, he ranks as the #290 best starting pitcher in MLB, making him one of the worst. However, his 4.48 xERA, as projected by THE BAT X, suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and could improve. Flexen’s high-flyball tendencies (38 FB%) could spell trouble against the Twins’ powerful offense, which ranks 6th in MLB with 107 home runs.

On the other side, Chris Paddack takes the mound for the Twins. Paddack has a 5-3 record with a 5.29 ERA, which is below average, but his 4.03 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky as well. Paddack’s low walk rate (5.2 BB%) may be a double-edged sword against a White Sox offense that is 2nd in MLB for least walks. This could work to Chicago’s advantage, as they may capitalize on Paddack’s frequent strikes.

Looking at the offensive matchups, the Twins have a clear edge. Minnesota’s offense ranks 4th best in MLB, featuring a robust 7th in team batting average and 6th in home runs. In stark contrast, the White Sox rank 29th in both offense and team batting average, and 27th in home runs. Recent form also favors the Twins, with Jose Miranda hitting an eye-popping .700 over the last week, while the White Sox’s Lenyn Sosa has been a bright spot, batting .440.

On the bullpen front, Minnesota again has the upper hand, ranking 5th in the Power Rankings, while Chicago languishes at 28th. Given the significant disparity between these two teams both in terms of season performance and advanced metrics, the Twins are rightly favored with a moneyline of -185, implying a 63% win probability. The White Sox, with a +160 moneyline, face an uphill battle with just a 37% implied win probability.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Chris Paddack – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chris Paddack to throw 74 pitches in this outing (14th-most of all pitchers on the slate), taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Byron Buxton has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.4-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 91.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen projects as the 4th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chris Flexen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Chris Flexen has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 6.9% more often this season (61.4%) than he did last season (54.5%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Andrew Benintendi’s true offensive talent to be a .313, implying that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .073 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .240 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Lenyn Sosa has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 27 games at home (+5.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 43 games (+10.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  Lenyn Sosa has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+9.55 Units / 64% ROI)