Cubs vs Padres Best Bets and Expert Picks – Tuesday April 28, 2026

Chicago Cubs

@

San Diego Padres

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Recording 94.2 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Edward Cabrera places him the 84th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen profiles as the worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Walker Buehler in the 25th percentile when estimating his strikeout skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  When estimating his batting average ability, Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected as the 20th-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Run Line +1.5 (-165)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+10.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.30 Units / 37% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games (+7.10 Units / 21% ROI)