Review the Nationals vs Mets Match Preview and Winning Probability – April 28th, 2026

Washington Nationals

@

New York Mets

Washington Nationals Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Zack Littell has averaged 77.9 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, ranking in the 9th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Luis Garcia – Over/Under Hits
  Luis Garcia Jr. is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+200/-270)
  James Wood has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Clay Holmes – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  With 7 bats who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Clay Holmes will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games (+12.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+160)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 35 away games (+12.50 Units / 36% ROI)
• Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+135/-175)
  Brett Baty has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.10 Units / 28% ROI)