Explore Rangers vs Angels Expert Picks and Betting Tips – 9/27/24

Texas Rangers

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Los Angeles Angels

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to host the Texas Rangers at Angel Stadium on September 27, 2024, both teams find themselves out of playoff contention in the American League West. The Angels, with a dismal 63-96 record, are having a terrible season, while the Rangers, at 75-84, are performing below average. This matchup marks the first game of their series, and although neither team is vying for a postseason berth, the game still carries intrigue, especially from a betting perspective.

The Angels are set to start Reid Detmers, a left-hander who has struggled this season, posting a 6.67 ERA. Despite his poor performance, advanced metrics suggest he’s been somewhat unlucky, with a 4.04 xFIP indicating potential for better results. Detmers projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.4 batters on average.

On the mound for the Rangers is the elite Jacob deGrom, a right-hander with a stellar 1.35 ERA over just two starts this year. While his xFIP of 3.41 suggests some luck has been involved, he is nonetheless projected to allow only 1.7 earned runs and strike out 7.0 batters over 5.1 innings.

Offensively, both teams have struggled, with the Angels ranking 26th and the Rangers 25th in overall offensive power this season. The Angels’ recent standout performer, Jack Lopez, boasts a .471 batting average with an impressive 1.176 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Josh H. Smith has been a bright spot for the Rangers, hitting .350 with a 1.009 OPS in his last five games.

The Rangers enter the game as favorites, with a moneyline of -160 and an implied win probability of 60%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, mirrors these odds, also giving the Rangers a 60% chance of victory. The Angels, seen as underdogs, have a moneyline of +140 and an implied win probability of 40%. In a contest where pitching talent heavily favors Texas, the Rangers are expected to come out on top.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Jacob deGrom’s 97.9-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 100th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  When it comes to his home runs, Wyatt Langford has been unlucky this year. His 15.6 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 24.3.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The 7.4% Barrel% of the Texas Rangers grades them out as the #22 team in Major League Baseball this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Reid Detmers – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average hurler, Reid Detmers has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 3.8 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Brandon Drury – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Brandon Drury is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Logan O’Hoppe pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.8% — 79th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under Team Total
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+7.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 66 games (+14.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 47 games (+11.00 Units / 18% ROI)