Explore Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Brewers vs Cardinals – May 5, 2026

Milwaukee Brewers

@

St. Louis Cardinals

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense profiles as the strongest among every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• David Hamilton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  David Hamilton’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 87-mph average last season has decreased to 83.5-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Because groundball pitchers hold a sizeable edge over groundball batters, Andre Pallante and his 57% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position in this game matching up with 4 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Nolan Gorman is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#1-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nolan Gorman, Pedro Pages, Jordan Walker).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line +1.0 (-150)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 20 games (+7.45 Units / 24% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Run Line -1.0 (+130)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 5 of their last 9 games (+3.55 Units / 39% ROI)
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+560/-1000)
  Alec Burleson has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+7.70 Units / 128% ROI)