Discover Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Reds vs Cubs - 5/5/2026

+140O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-165

Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
Andrew Abbott has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying 3.2 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
Chicago’s #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Elly De La Cruz, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson, Will Benson).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jameson Taillon has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 10.3% more often this season (64.9%) than he did last year (54.6%).
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Matt Shaw – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
Matt Shaw has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.3% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the last 14 days.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
The Chicago Cubs have hit 32.6% of their balls in the air 100 mph or faster this year, ranking them as the #9 squad in Major League Baseball by this standard.
Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+11.00 Units / 24% ROI)
Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 45 away games (+4.50 Units / 9% ROI)
Ian Happ – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+8.80 Units / 40% ROI)

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