Expert Player Predictions for Red Sox vs Blue Jays – Thursday, September 25, 2025

Boston Red Sox

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the American League East rivals, the Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox, prepare for their matchup on September 25, 2025, it’s clear that both teams are enjoying strong seasons. The Blue Jays hold a record of 90-68, while the Red Sox are just a step behind at 87-71. With playoff positions at stake, every game becomes critical, and this contest could be pivotal for both squads.

In their last meeting, the Blue Jays suffered a significant defeat, losing 7-1 to the Red Sox. This loss highlighted both teams’ current trajectories, as the Red Sox celebrated a commanding victory. Now, with Shane Bieber projected to start for the Blue Jays and Brayan Bello on the mound for the Red Sox, this game features a compelling pitching matchup.

Bieber, a seasoned right-hander with a solid ERA of 3.57, is looking to bounce back after a commendable outing where he threw 6 innings, allowing only 2 earned runs and striking out 4 batters. Despite strong individual performances, his 4.25 xERA suggests that he may not be as fortunate going forward. Conversely, Bello’s 3.34 ERA hints at reliability, even though he has faced challenges in his last start, where he allowed 3 earned runs over just 4 innings.

The Blue Jays’ offense, statistically ranked 1st in MLB for batting average and 5th overall, could provide the support Bieber needs to secure a win. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have their own threats, boasting the 4th best batting average in MLB. However, the Blue Jays’ superior depth—reflected in their Power Rankings—indicates they may hold the edge.

With the game total set at 8.0 runs, the Blue Jays are favored with a moneyline of -140. They will rely on their potent offense to capitalize against Bello, who, despite his average projections, may struggle against a lineup that ranks 2nd in the league for fewest strikeouts. Expect an entertaining clash as both teams vie for crucial wins in their playoff pursuits.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  Brayan Bello is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.6% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Rogers Centre — the #3 HR venue in the league — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Romy Gonzalez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Romy Gonzalez has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.4-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 93.3-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Shane Bieber – Over/Under Strikeouts
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Shane Bieber in the 88th percentile when it comes to his strikeout talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Extreme groundball batters like Daulton Varsho tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 125 games (+20.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+115)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 95 games (+17.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• Ernie Clement – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Ernie Clement has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+9.05 Units / 37% ROI)