San Francisco Giants
Washington Nationals
(-110/-110)-105
As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face off against the Washington Nationals on August 6, 2024, both teams find themselves with less-than-stellar records this season. The Giants sit at 57-57, showing an average performance, while the Nationals are struggling at 51-62, marking them as below average. This matchup comes on the heels of yesterday’s contest, where the Giants triumphed over the Nationals with a score of 4-1.
On the mound, the Nationals will start MacKenzie Gore, who has had a rocky year, holding a 6-9 record with a 4.54 ERA. Gore’s last outing was uneventful, as he allowed three earned runs over five innings. He’s projected to pitch 5.4 innings today, but he has struggled with hits, allowing an average of 4.9 per game, which could be a concern against a Giants lineup that ranks 13th in MLB offensively.
Opposing him is Hayden Birdsong, who boasts an impressive 3-0 record and a stellar 2.97 ERA across six starts. Birdsong pitched exceptionally well in his last game, throwing five innings without allowing an earned run. His high strikeout rate of 30.2% poses a challenge for a Nationals offense that ranks 24th in MLB, particularly given their low strikeout rate.
The projections suggest a close game, with the Nationals having a slightly higher implied team total of 4.39 runs compared to the Giants’ 4.61. However, with the Giants’ bullpen ranked 1st in MLB and the Nationals’ bullpen sitting at 29th, San Francisco may hold the edge as they look to extend their recent success.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Hayden Birdsong – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)Compared to average, Hayden Birdsong has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an -9.9 fewer adjusted pitches each game.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Matt Chapman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Matt Chapman has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.8-mph to 99.2-mph over the last two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- San Francisco Giants – 2H MoneylineThe San Francisco Giants bullpen profiles as the best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Washington Nationals Insights
- MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)MacKenzie Gore has gone to his change-up 5.9% more often this year (8.8%) than he did last year (2.9%).Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Juan Yepez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Despite posting a .367 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Juan Yepez has been very fortunate given the .066 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .301.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- CJ Abrams – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.1% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-160)The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 63 of their last 111 games (+7.93 Units / 5% ROI)
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 49 away games (+8.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- LaMonte Wade Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-140)LaMonte Wade Jr has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+7.80 Units / 30% ROI)