White Sox vs D-Backs Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Chicago White Sox

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Arizona Diamondbacks

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Anthony Kay – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Recording 93.1 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Anthony Kay ranks in the 75th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks don’t have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Colson Montgomery is certain to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen the whole game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Eduardo Rodriguez’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (58% vs. 44.5% last year) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  When it comes to his batting average, Ildemaro Vargas has been lucky since the start of last season. His .302 mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .208.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• James McCann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  James McCann hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 35 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 50 away games (+8.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Chase Meidroth – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Chase Meidroth has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+6.90 Units / 62% ROI)