White Sox vs D-Backs Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Chicago White Sox

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Arizona Diamondbacks

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Anthony Kay – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Kay to throw 83 pitches today (5th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks don’t have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Colson Montgomery is certain to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen the whole game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Eduardo Rodriguez’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (58% vs. 44.5% last year) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jorge Barrosa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.167) provides evidence that Jorge Barrosa has been lucky since the start of last season with his .234 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• James McCann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  James McCann hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 35 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 50 away games (+8.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-125/-105)
  Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+6.10 Units / 22% ROI)