Winning Probability and Team Stats for Yankees vs Red Sox Match – Wednesday April 22, 2026

New York Yankees

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Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Given that groundball hitters face a disadvantage against groundball pitchers, Max Fried (50.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 2 GB hitters in the opposing team’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+245/-340)
  Austin Wells is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Boston (#1-best of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The New York Yankees have 5 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Austin Wells, Jose Caballero, Jazz Chisholm Jr.).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Ranger Suarez has notched a 3.35 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that concentrates on the aspects of pitching most within the pitcher’s control) since the start of last season, checking in at the 84th percentile.
  Explain: ERA is a bad and misleading stat. FIP is an improved version of it and gives a better estimate of a pitcher’s deserved runs allowed.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+210/-280)
  Over the past 7 days, Wilyer Abreu’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.1% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox’ bullpen profiles as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+6.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.00 Units / 32% ROI)
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
  Trevor Story has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.05 Units / 29% ROI)