Winning Probability and Team Stats for Yankees vs Red Sox Match – Wednesday April 22, 2026

New York Yankees

@

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-170)
  Max Fried has been given more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying 7.3 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Extreme flyball batters like Aaron Judge tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Ranger Suarez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The New York Yankees have 5 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Aaron Judge, Jose Caballero, Austin Wells, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Giancarlo Stanton).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  The New York Yankees have 6 batters in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ranger Suarez in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Jarren Duran is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox’ bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+6.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.00 Units / 32% ROI)
• Willson Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+145/-190)
  Willson Contreras has hit the Walks Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 53% ROI)