Discover the Pirates vs Reds Game Time - July 31, 2026

-130O/U: 8
(-105/-115)+110

Paul Skenes – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
Paul Skenes’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.3 mph this year (96.2 mph) below where it was last year (97.5 mph).
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
Jake Mangum – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
Extreme groundball batters like Jake Mangum usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Greene.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Pittsburgh Pirates bats as a unit place 10th- in the majors for power this year when assessing with their 8.5% Barrel%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
Hunter Greene is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #1 HR venue among all stadiums today.
Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
Dane Myers has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today’s game.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
Nathaniel Lowe has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+8.55 Units / 34% ROI)
Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 13 away games (+4.30 Units / 28% ROI)
Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)
Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.25 Units / 31% ROI)

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