
Washington Nationals
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San Francisco Giants
+100O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)-120
(-120/+100)-120
Washington Nationals Insights
- Foster Griffin – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Foster Griffin must realize this, because he has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 71.2% of the time, placing in the 99th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Nasim Nunez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Extreme flyball hitters like Nasim Nunez tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Robbie Ray.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- CJ Abrams – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)CJ Abrams pulls many of his flyballs (35.3% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Robbie Ray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Robbie Ray’s 92.6-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 24th percentile out of all SPs.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Matt Chapman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)Matt Chapman has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The San Francisco Giants have 5 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Daniel Susac, Jonah Cox, Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Bryce Eldridge).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
