Discover Current Player Trends for D-Backs vs Cubs - Friday May 01, 2026

+115O/U: 7
(-110/-110)-140

Zac Gallen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
Zac Gallen’s four-seamer usage has fallen by 6.9% from last season to this one (45.4% to 38.5%) .
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
Adrian Del Castillo – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+195/-265)
Chicago’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Adrian Del Castillo, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+260/-370)
Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-140)
The Chicago Cubs infield defense profiles as the 2nd-best among all the teams today.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
Carson Kelly is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
The underlying talent of the Chicago Cubs projected lineup today (.329 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount weaker than their .341 wOBA this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-140)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.75 Units / 49% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics