D-Backs vs Nationals Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Saturday, July 25, 2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Washington Nationals

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Mitch Bratt – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Mitch Bratt (38.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in Washington’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Corbin Carroll has made notable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 12.2% seasonal rate to 20.8% over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Corbin Carroll pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Foster Griffin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have 8 bats in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Foster Griffin in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  CJ Abrams may have an edge against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The underlying talent of the Washington Nationals projected batting order today (.317 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly weaker than their .332 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+7.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.40 Units / 36% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+10.75 Units / 50% ROI)