Check the Injuries Update for Red Sox vs Rays – 9/18/2024

Boston Red Sox

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Tampa Bay Rays

The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays continue their American League East series at Tropicana Field on September 18, 2024. Both teams are stuck in mediocrity, with the Red Sox holding a slight edge at 75-76, while the Rays sit at 74-77. Despite their records, the Red Sox possess a powerful offense, ranking 5th in MLB, while the Rays struggle, ranking 26th. This game could be crucial for the Red Sox as they look to edge closer to a potential playoff spot, while the Rays aim to play spoiler after their 8-3 victory over Boston last night.

On the mound, the Rays will send Ryan Pepiot, ranked 54th among MLB starters, with a respectable 3.76 ERA. However, his recent performance has been shaky, only lasting two innings in his last outing on September 12. Meanwhile, the Red Sox counter with Tanner Houck, who has impressed as the 33rd best starter with a 3.24 ERA. Despite his strong ERA, Houck’s 4.18 xERA suggests he may have been fortunate this season, hinting at possible regression.

Both pitchers face offenses at opposite ends of the spectrum. The Rays’ lineup lacks power, shown by their 27th ranking in home runs, making Houck’s groundball tendencies a potential advantage. Conversely, the Red Sox’s top-5 offense poses a challenge for Pepiot, especially with the streaking Danny Jansen contributing with a .971 OPS over the last week.

The Rays’ bullpen, ranked 3rd, could play a pivotal role in maintaining any lead, while the Red Sox’s middle-of-the-pack relief corps might be vulnerable. The betting market sees this as an evenly matched contest, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Red Sox a slight edge with a 52% projected win probability, suggesting their robust offense and Houck’s pitching could tip the scales in their favor.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Tanner Houck – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Tanner Houck was on point in his last outing and accumulated 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.333) may lead us to conclude that Tyler O’Neill has had positive variance on his side this year with his .372 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The 9% Barrel% of the Boston Red Sox grades them out as the #7 group of hitters in the game this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Tallying 15 outs per GS this year on average, Ryan Pepiot checks in at the 21st percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Christopher Morel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Christopher Morel has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 11% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Brandon Lowe hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 9th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 86 of their last 146 games (+21.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.80 Units / 34% ROI)
• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+130/-170)
  Ryan Pepiot has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+8.35 Units / 28% ROI)