Check the Injuries Update for Pirates vs Yankees – 7/21/2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

New York Yankees

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  The New York Yankees have 6 batters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Bubba Chandler in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Esmerlyn Valdez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Esmerlyn Valdez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 99-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 92.9-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Pittsburgh Pirates in this game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .318, which is a good deal lower than their actual wOBA of .335 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-185)
  The New York Yankees infield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest among every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• The 9.9% Barrel% of the New York Yankees ranks them as the #1 team in the majors this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.20 Units / 42% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.65 Units / 28% ROI)