Betting Odds and Bets for Rays vs Blue Jays - 7/21/26

-110O/U: 7.5
(+100/-120)-110

Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
Drew Rasmussen is an extreme groundball pitcher (47.2% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Rogers Centre — the #5 HR venue in the league — in today’s game.
Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
Cedric Mullins has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (65% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
Yandy Diaz hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kevin Gausman has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 51.4% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
Nathan Lukes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
Nathan Lukes’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 89.7-mph figure last season has lowered to 87.4-mph.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the Toronto Blue Jays offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 5th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.
Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games (+5.30 Units / 11% ROI)
Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.40 Units / 27% ROI)
Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.10 Units / 24% ROI)

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