Betting Odds and Bets for Rays vs Blue Jays – 7/21/26

Tampa Bay Rays

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Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  Drew Rasmussen is an extreme groundball pitcher (47.2% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Rogers Centre — the #5 HR venue in the league — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under Hits
  Cedric Mullins has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (65% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Hunter Feduccia – Over/Under Total Bases
  Hunter Feduccia hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Kevin Gausman has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 7 opposite-handed batters in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Nathan Lukes – Over/Under Total Bases
  Nathan Lukes’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 89.7-mph figure last season has lowered to 87.4-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Toronto Blue Jays (18.2 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-heavy set of batters of the day.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under Game Total
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games (+5.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.40 Units / 27% ROI)