Check Out the Match Preview: Cubs vs Cardinals Game Forecast and Analysis – 7/27/2026

Chicago Cubs

@

St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  David Peterson has tallied 13.9 outs per start this year, placing in the 14th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Michael Busch stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Matthew Liberatore has used his cutter 6.6% less often this year (4%) than he did last season (10.6%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Typically, batters like Ivan Herrera who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as David Peterson.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games at home (+10.60 Units / 51% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 19 away games (+11.10 Units / 44% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-160/+125)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.90 Units / 34% ROI)