Brewers vs Royals Game Time – 4/03/2026

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Kansas City Royals

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Chad Patrick – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Chad Patrick has had some very good luck with his strikeouts since the start of last season, compiling a 9.51 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.11 — a 1.40 K/9 disparity.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Brandon Lockridge – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Brandon Lockridge’s quickness has decreased this year. His 30.07 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.71 ft/sec now.
  Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the luckiest offense in the majors since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Among all starting pitchers, Luinder Avila’s fastball spin rate of 2482 rpm ranks in the 90th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  The Kansas City Royals bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 65 games at home (+19.10 Units / 25% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 119 games (+23.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+120/-155)
  Brice Turang has hit the Walks Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+6.10 Units / 87% ROI)