Braves vs Mariners Value Bets and Betting Line - 5/05/2026

+110O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-130

Bryce Elder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
Bryce Elder’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (53.6% compared to 45.6% last year) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
Mauricio Dubon is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-best out of all teams in the majors.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
Among all starting pitchers, George Kirby’s fastball velocity of 95.9 mph grades out in the 84th percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
Luke Raley has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.7-mph average to last season’s 91-mph figure.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.5% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest RF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 50 games at home (+5.10 Units / 6% ROI)
Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 40 away games (+14.40 Units / 31% ROI)
Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+160/-210)
Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+13.70 Units / 55% ROI)

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