Expert Picks and Betting Line for Pirates vs D-Backs - Tuesday May 5th, 2026

+115O/U: 9
(-110/-110)-135

Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-165/+125)
Bubba Chandler’s 97.9-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 98th percentile among all starters.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-205)
Nick Gonzales is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
The Pittsburgh Pirates (25.7% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the most strikeout-prone set of batters of the day.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
Recording 93.6 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Eduardo Rodriguez checks in at the 81st percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
Nolan Arenado’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 86.8-mph average last year has lowered to 83.5-mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen grades out as the 7th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.55 Units / 29% ROI)
Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-180)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 35 away games (+7.95 Units / 16% ROI)
Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.70 Units / 24% ROI)

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