Expert Picks and Betting Line for Pirates vs D-Backs - Tuesday May 5th, 2026

+105O/U: 9
(-110/-110)-125

Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
Bubba Chandler’s 97.9-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 98th percentile among all starters.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Jake Mangum – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+155/-200)
Jake Mangum has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
The Pittsburgh Pirates (26% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the most strikeout-prone set of batters of the day.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
Recording 93.6 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Eduardo Rodriguez checks in at the 80th percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
Nolan Arenado’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 86.8-mph average last year has lowered to 83.5-mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.55 Units / 29% ROI)
Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-195)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 35 away games (+7.95 Units / 16% ROI)
Konnor Griffin – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
Konnor Griffin has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 games (+6.55 Units / 71% ROI)

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