Betting Tips and Odds for Cubs vs Pirates - Monday May 25th, 2026

-125O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)+105

Ben Brown – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
Ben Brown has utilized his four-seamer 18.2% less often this season (39.9%) than he did last year (58.1%).
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
Moises Ballesteros – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+190/-255)
As it relates to his home runs, Moises Ballesteros has been lucky since the start of last season. His 24.4 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 11.4.
Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
Today, Alex Bregman is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.7% rate (89th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Carmen Mlodzinski – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
Carmen Mlodzinski’s 2051-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 4th percentile among all SPs.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
Spencer Horwitz has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (80% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Konnor Griffin, Jhostynxon Garcia).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-135)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.70 Units / 24% ROI)
Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 23 away games (+5.45 Units / 21% ROI)
Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-155/+120)
Nick Gonzales has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+5.65 Units / 26% ROI)

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