Betting Tips and Odds for Cubs vs Pirates – Monday May 25th, 2026

Chicago Cubs

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Ben Brown – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Ben Brown has utilized his four-seamer 18.2% less often this season (39.9%) than he did last year (58.1%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+170/-225)
  As it relates to his batting average skill, Nico Hoerner is projected as the 11th-best hitter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Today, Alex Bregman is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.6% rate (89th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Carmen Mlodzinski – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Carmen Mlodzinski’s 2051-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 4th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Spencer Horwitz has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (83% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Esmerlyn Valdez, Jhostynxon Garcia, Konnor Griffin, Oneil Cruz).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts