
Philadelphia Phillies
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Los Angeles Angels
-165O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)+145
(-110/-110)+145
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-165/+130)Compared to average, Zack Wheeler has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 6.7 adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Bryce Harper has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 96.3-mph over the last 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Philadelphia Phillies – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-best out of all major league teams.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Yusei Kikuchi has relied on his change-up 9.3% more often this season (21.5%) than he did last year (12.2%).Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Christian Moore – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Christian Moore has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 21.1 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is significantly inflated relative to his 7.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Josh Lowe has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 25 games at home (+12.30 Units / 44% ROI)
- Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-165)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Moisés Ballesteros – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)Moisés Ballesteros has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+10.00 Units / 37% ROI)
