Detailed Player Insights for Rays vs Orioles – 8/22/2026

Tampa Bay Rays

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Baltimore Orioles

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-135)
  Out of all the teams playing today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Liam Hicks – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Liam Hicks has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.9-mph dropping to 80.2-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Brandon Young – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Tallying 91.6 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Brandon Young falls in the 77th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Carlos Narváez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Carlos Narvaez has been unlucky this year, posting a .225 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .282 — a .057 difference.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the most strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Baltimore Orioles with a 27.3% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+6.45 Units / 27% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 14 away games (+9.15 Units / 52% ROI)
• Jonny DeLuca – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Jonny DeLuca has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+8.35 Units / 18% ROI)