Betting Guide and Odds for Blue Jays vs Rays – Thursday September 18, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays host the Toronto Blue Jays on September 18, 2025, the stakes remain high in this American League East matchup. The Rays are currently sitting at 74-78, having seen their hopes for a division title dashed, while the Blue Jays boast a solid 89-63 record and are in contention for a playoff spot. In their last game, the Rays edged out the Blue Jays 2-1, continuing to ride the momentum from that tight victory.

On the mound, the Rays are projected to start Shane Baz, who had a rough outing in his last start on September 12, where he allowed 5 earned runs over just 2 innings. Despite being ranked as the 47th best starting pitcher in MLB by advanced stats, Baz’s 5.15 ERA this season suggests he’s had his struggles. The projections indicate he’ll pitch about 5.3 innings today, but with a concerning expectation of 2.5 earned runs and a high average of 4.8 hits allowed.

Opposing him will be Chris Bassitt, who is projected to give the Blue Jays an edge. With an ERA of 3.90 and a much more favorable recent performance—allowing just 1 earned run in his last start—Bassitt appears to be the more reliable option. The Blue Jays’ offense ranks 3rd in MLB, and while they may have a low home run ranking at 12th, their overall ability to hit for average (1st in MLB) can put pressure on Baz early.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, betting markets suggest this could be tightly contested, favoring the Blue Jays with an implied team total of 3.93 runs compared to the Rays’ low total of 3.57. The Rays’ potent bullpen, ranked 2nd in MLB, could play a crucial role should Baz struggle again, but with a solid performance from Bassitt, the Blue Jays appear primed to capitalize on their offensive strengths.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Chris Bassitt’s 90.9-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.7-mph fall off from last year’s 92.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Tyler Heineman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Tyler Heineman has experienced some positive variance this year. His .353 figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .261.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen projects as the 6th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Shane Baz is projected to strikeout 5.1 batters in today’s matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Hunter Feduccia – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Hunter Feduccia’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.1% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 84 of their last 148 games (+10.90 Units / 6% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+140)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 86 of their last 151 games (+20.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130/+100)
  Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.70 Units / 26% ROI)