Uncover the Game Forecast: Mets vs Dodgers Match Preview – 4/15/26

New York Mets

@

Los Angeles Dodgers

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+150)
  Clay Holmes has notched a fantastic 1.50 ERA over his last 3 outings.
  Explain: A pitcher who has been strong in his recent outings may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Francisco Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Francisco Alvarez is penciled in 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The New York Mets have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
  Shohei Ohtani has recorded 13.2 outs per game per started since the start of last season, grading out in the 4th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Shohei Ohtani’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 100.7-mph figure last season has dropped to 97.7-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen projects as the best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+4.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.85 Units / 20% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Shohei Ohtani has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+7.00 Units / 30% ROI)