Analyze the Mariners vs Astros Game Analysis and Winning Probability - Wednesday, May 13, 2026

-140O/U: 9
(-120/+100)+120

Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (-140)
Among every team on the slate today, the 2nd-worst infield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
Luke Raley has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.8-mph to 104.5-mph in the last week.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.7% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 9th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Lance McCullers Jr. will surrender an average of 2.99 earned runs today.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
Seattle’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Yordan Alvarez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Houston Astros in this game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .315, which is quite a bit lower than their actual wOBA of .326 this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+10.20 Units / 20% ROI)
Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 24 away games (+4.30 Units / 16% ROI)
Cole Young – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-180)
Cole Young has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 48% ROI)

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