Analyze the Blue Jays vs Mariners Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Friday, May 09, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

@

Seattle Mariners

On May 9, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Toronto Blue Jays at T-Mobile Park in what marks the first game of their series. The Mariners are enjoying a strong season with a record of 22-14, while the Blue Jays sit at 17-20, struggling to find their footing. Seattle currently ranks as the 4th best offense in MLB, boasting impressive power with 51 home runs, whereas Toronto’s offense ranks 24th and has hit the fewest home runs in the league with just 26.

The Mariners will send Luis Castillo to the mound, who has been solid this year, sporting a 3.29 ERA and a 3-2 record over 7 starts. Despite his above-average performance, advanced stats indicate he may have been a bit lucky, as his xFIP stands at 4.59. Castillo’s low strikeout rate (18.2 K%) could present challenges against a Blue Jays lineup that struggles to capitalize on strikeouts, making this matchup intriguing.

On the other side, Kevin Gausman will take the hill for Toronto, also with a record of 2-3 and a respectable 3.83 ERA. Gausman’s projections suggest he may allow a few more earned runs than Castillo, but his ability to strike out hitters (6.3 projected strikeouts) remains a bright spot.

The Mariners are currently favored with a moneyline of -140, reflecting their stronger form and offensive capabilities. The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a potentially close contest. With Seattle’s potent bats facing Gausman’s flyball tendencies, they could capitalize on any mistakes, making them a team to watch in this matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Given that groundball pitchers have a sizeable advantage over groundball hitters, Kevin Gausman and his 36.4% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot in today’s matchup squaring off against 3 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Addison Barger has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Daulton Varsho pulls many of his flyballs (39.1% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis F. Castillo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Luis Castillo has relied on his sinker 5% more often this year (23%) than he did last year (18%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Randy Arozarena – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  This season, Randy Arozarena has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.8 mph compared to last year’s 94.2 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Seattle Mariners have been the luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (-145)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.70 Units / 31% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-140)
  J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+18.05 Units / 68% ROI)