Review the Mets vs Astros Match Preview and Winning Probability – March 27th, 2025

New York Mets

@

Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to face the New York Mets on March 27, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their standings in what promises to be an intense interleague matchup. The Astros currently sit in a favorable position with a strong offensive unit ranked 8th best in MLB, led by a 3rd best team batting average this season. Meanwhile, the Mets are holding their own as the 9th best offense in baseball, showcasing their own potency at the plate.

On the mound, the Astros are projected to start Framber Valdez, who ranks as the 14th best starting pitcher according to the leading MLB projection system. Valdez has been solid this season, allowing an average of 2.1 earned runs, but he’ll need to improve on his average of 4.9 hits and 1.8 walks allowed to keep the Mets at bay. His last outing was less than stellar, where he gave up 3 earned runs over 4 innings.

In contrast, the Mets will counter with Clay Holmes, who is ranked 31st among starting pitchers. Though his projections indicate he may also allow 2.1 earned runs, he has struggled with his below-average strikeout rate and similarly high hit projections.

As the game total is set low at 7.5 runs, betting markets view it as a closely contested matchup, reflected in the nearly even moneyline. The Astros’ implied team total sits at 3.79 runs, while the Mets find themselves at a slightly lower 3.71 runs. This game marks the first of the series between the two teams, adding an additional layer of excitement as they aim to establish early dominance.

New York Mets Insights

• Clay Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Clay Holmes will hold the platoon advantage over 8 opposing batters in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-105)
  The New York Mets projected lineup profiles as the 2nd-best of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Houston Astros Insights

• Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Jeremy Pena usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Clay Holmes.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen projects as the 8th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 151 games (+16.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-105)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 119 games (+21.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.30 Units / 31% ROI)