Expert Player Predictions for Mariners vs Astros – Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Seattle Mariners

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros and the Seattle Mariners are set to clash at Minute Maid Park on September 25, 2024, in a critical American League West matchup. With the Astros holding an 86-72 record and the Mariners at 81-77, both teams are fighting for positioning as the season winds down. The Astros, having an above-average season, are looking to capitalize on their home advantage, while the Mariners, despite an average year, are still in the playoff hunt.

In their last meeting, the Astros fell to the Mariners in a close contest, adding extra pressure to this third game of the series. On the mound, Houston is sending out Yusei Kikuchi, a left-handed pitcher ranked 63rd among approximately 350 starting pitchers this year. Kikuchi has been somewhat unlucky, as suggested by his 3.23 xFIP compared to a 4.19 ERA, indicating potential for improvement. He’ll face a high-strikeout Mariners lineup, which could play to his strengths.

The Mariners counter with George Kirby, ranked 20th among pitchers, boasting a solid 3.60 ERA. However, he may face challenges against the Astros’ potent offense, which ranks 9th overall and 3rd in team batting average. Kirby’s low walk rate might not exploit the Astros’ impatience at the plate.

Offensively, the Astros are led by Kyle Tucker, who has been on fire with a .409 batting average and 1.382 OPS over the last week. The Mariners rely on Julio Rodriguez, who has recorded 13 hits and 11 RBIs in his last seven games, maintaining a .371 average.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Mariners a slight edge with a 55% win probability, projecting them to score 4.78 runs on average compared to the Astros’ 4.04. Despite the projections, this game promises to be a tight contest as both teams vie for a crucial victory.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  George Kirby’s 95.4-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 88th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Julio Rodriguez has seen a big gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.8-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 91.2-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under Total Bases
  Mitch Garver pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Yusei Kikuchi has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 3.4 more adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Despite posting a .415 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Kyle Tucker has had positive variance on his side given the .043 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .372.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Houston Astros with a 18.6% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under Game Total
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 152 games (+15.25 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under Game Total
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 44 away games (+12.60 Units / 26% ROI)
• Justin Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+155/-205)
  Justin Turner has hit the Walks Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+8.45 Units / 106% ROI)