See the Updated Player Rankings for Red Sox vs Blue Jays – 9/24/24

Boston Red Sox

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox square off on September 24, 2024, in what promises to be a compelling matchup at Rogers Centre. With the Blue Jays sitting at 73-84 and no longer in the hunt for the American League East crown, they’re looking to end their season on a positive note. Meanwhile, the Red Sox, at 79-78, continue to hover around the .500 mark, seeking a strong finish to their year.

In the first game of this series, Toronto came up short against Boston, setting the stage for an intriguing second game. Bowden Francis is on the mound for the Blue Jays, boasting a solid 3.47 ERA, though his peripheral stats suggest he might have been a bit fortunate this season. Francis looks to counter an above-average Boston offense, ranked 7th in MLB, spearheaded by Nick Sogard, who has been hitting .444 with a 1.278 OPS over the last week.

Brayan Bello, who has a 4.49 ERA, will start for the Red Sox. While his ERA indicates average performance, his xFIP suggests he could be better than his numbers show. Bello faces a Toronto lineup that ranks 15th overall in offensive prowess but struggles in the power department, sitting at 25th in home runs.

The Blue Jays’ bullpen is ranked 25th, while Boston sits at a more respectable 16th, providing a slight edge in late-game situations to the Red Sox. Despite this, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, offers a slight edge to Toronto with a 51% win probability for this game. Betting markets, however, indicate a close contest with Toronto at -135 and Boston at +115 on the moneyline.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Brayan Bello’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (55.3% compared to 43.1% last year) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under Total Bases
  Toronto’s #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Wilyer Abreu, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Triston Casas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Triston Casas hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Bowden Francis – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Over his last 3 games started, Bowden Francis has experienced a notable decrease in his fastball velocity: from 92.2 mph over the entire season to 90.8 mph in recent games.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Spencer Horwitz has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 8.7% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 19.4% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 55 games at home (+15.55 Units / 26% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under Team Total
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.10 Units / 50% ROI)
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Trevor Story has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 away games (+7.10 Units / 71% ROI)