Score for Guardians vs Cardinals Game – September 22, 2024

Cleveland Guardians

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals host the Cleveland Guardians at Busch Stadium on September 22, 2024, both teams find themselves in different phases of their seasons. The Cardinals, with a 78-77### record, are having an average season and are not in the playoff race. Meanwhile, the Guardians are enjoying a great season with a 90-66### record, firmly in contention for postseason glory.

In this interleague matchup, the Cardinals will send Andre Pallante to the mound. Pallante has been solid this year, boasting a 3.87### ERA. Despite his low strikeout rate, he has managed to maintain a record of 7-8. His projection to allow just 2.5 earned runs on average today is promising, though he may struggle against Cleveland’s contact-heavy lineup, which ranks 4th in strikeouts.

Gavin Williams will get the start for the Guardians. Though his 5.12### ERA suggests struggles, his 4.06 xFIP indicates that he might have been a bit unlucky this season. Williams is projected to allow 2.3 earned runs on average, suggesting a potential for better outcomes. The Cardinals’ 19th-ranked offense will look to capitalize on his vulnerabilities, but their below-average power ranking could be a limiting factor.

Offensively, the Cardinals have seen a recent surge from Ivan Herrera, who has been on fire with a .545 average and a 1.524 OPS over the last week. The Guardians counter with Kyle Manzardo, whose .429 average and two homers in the past week have been crucial.

The Guardians’ bullpen, ranked 4th in MLB, could be a decisive factor, especially against a Cardinals bullpen ranked 18th. With both teams having an implied total of 3.75 runs, projections suggest a tight contest, but the Cardinals have a slight edge with a 53% win probability according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. As such, this game could offer an intriguing matchup for bettors and fans alike.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Gavin Williams has tallied 14.1 outs per GS this year, ranking in the 7th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Extreme flyball bats like Jose Ramirez usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Andre Pallante.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Cleveland Guardians have been the 6th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Andre Pallante has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 68.9% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Jordan Walker has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 11.4% seasonal rate to 23.1% over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• St. Louis’s 88.5-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in the majors: #21 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+7.30 Units / 32% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 71 away games (+15.80 Units / 20% ROI)
• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-170/+130)
  Gavin Williams has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 48% ROI)