Check Out the Team Stats and Prediction for Guardians vs Cardinals Matchup 9/21/2024

Cleveland Guardians

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St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals will host the Cleveland Guardians at Busch Stadium on September 21, 2024, in the second game of their interleague series. The Guardians, having clinched a playoff spot with a 90-65 record, come into this matchup as the favorites. The Cardinals, with a balanced 77-77 record, aim to rebound after a 5-1 loss to the Guardians the previous night.

Miles Mikolas will take the mound for the Cardinals, looking to improve upon a season with a 5.49 ERA. Although Mikolas has been below average, his xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and could perform better. He faces a low-strikeout Guardians offense, which might prove challenging given his own struggles with strikeouts. Meanwhile, the Cleveland offense, ranked 17th in MLB, relies on speed, ranking 5th in stolen bases. Jose Ramirez leads the Guardians with 36 home runs and a .274 batting average, adding significant depth to their lineup.

Matthew Boyd, starting for the Guardians, enters with an impressive 2.52 ERA, though his xFIP indicates some fortune in his pitching outcomes. Despite being limited to just seven starts, Boyd’s performance has been pivotal for the Guardians. He’ll be challenged by a Cardinals offense that ranks 19th overall but holds the 13th spot in batting average. Brendan Donovan has been hot for St. Louis over the past week, boasting a .360 average and 1.048 OPS.

The Guardians’ bullpen, ranked 5th, might give them an edge in tight situations, while the Cardinals’ bullpen stands at 12th. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Cardinals have a 51% win probability, suggesting potential betting value against the market’s 46% implied probability. This game promises to be closely contested, with both teams having strengths and vulnerabilities that could swing the outcome.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Matthew Boyd’s change-up utilization has risen by 8% from last year to this one (18.7% to 26.7%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Kyle Manzardo is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+110)
  Among all the teams today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Michael Siani – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Michael Siani’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 84.7-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 81.4-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.8% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.05 Units / 43% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 63 games (+14.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 16 away games (+7.85 Units / 44% ROI)